Fertilizer: Why it’s important to all of us. When most of us think about our food supply, we think of grocery store shelves, farmers’ markets, and maybe even our own backyard gardens. What we do not usually think about is fertilizer. Yet fertilizer is one of the quiet foundations that our entire food system rests on. Without it, crop yields drop, prices rise, and the food we count on becomes harder to find and more expensive to buy. I want to walk through why fertilizer matters so much right now, and why I believe stocking up on food is simply wise, no matter what happens next.
Why fertilizer matters more than most of us realize
Modern farming depends heavily on nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers to keep soil productive enough to feed a growing world. Nitrogen fertilizer alone accounts for roughly 110 million tons of the nearly 190 million tons of plant nutrition products used worldwide each year. Without these inputs, farmers simply cannot grow enough food on the same amount of land. That means fertilizer is not some small farming detail. It is directly tied to how much food ends up on your table and mine.
The Strait of Hormuz and why a narrow strip of water affects your kitchen table
Earlier this year, conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important waterways for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer. Before the disruption, roughly 30% of global fertilizer exports moved through that narrow passage, along with a large share of the sulfur needed to produce phosphate fertilizer. When ship traffic through the strait fell by more than ninety-five percent at the height of the crisis, urea and phosphate shipments backed up, natural gas prices climbed sharply, and fertilizer plants in the Gulf region were forced to shut down.
Nitrogen Fertilizer
Because nitrogen fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, prices for ammonia and urea rose quickly. Farmers preparing for spring planting faced a difficult choice between paying much higher fertilizer prices and cutting back on the amount they applied to their fields. Either choice affects the harvest that eventually reaches our grocery stores.
The good news is that since an interim peace agreement was reached, shipping through the strait has begun to recover, with fertilizer cargo vessels once again leaving the Gulf region. That is a hopeful sign. But experts have been clear that the effects of a disruption like this do not disappear overnight. Because fertilizer applied today affects harvests that will not reach store shelves for months, agencies such as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization have warned that tighter food supplies could persist well into next year, even as shipping improves.
Tariffs and the cost of growing our food
On top of the shipping disruption, American farmers have also been dealing with the cost of tariffs on imported phosphate fertilizer. Morocco holds about 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, but duties imposed on Moroccan fertilizer in 2021 pushed prices higher for years, reportedly adding nearly $7 billion in extra costs for American farmers between 2021 and 2025.
Recently, in response to the fertilizer supply crunch, the administration suspended those duties for 8 months to help ease costs for farmers heading into the planting season. This is a helpful step, and it shows how closely trade policy and food security are connected. A tariff on a fertilizer input thousands of miles away can eventually show up as a higher price tag at your local grocery store.
Why grocery stores cannot simply absorb a disruption
Here is something many people do not realize. Most grocery stores operate on a just-in-time supply model. Rather than storing large amounts of extra inventory, stores rely on frequent deliveries, often multiple times a week, to keep shelves stocked. Because of this, many stores only carry enough inventory on hand to last about three days under normal conditions. This system works wonderfully when supply chains run smoothly. It becomes a real problem the moment something interrupts the flow, whether that is a storm, a fuel shortage, a shipping bottleneck, or a spike in farming costs that ripples through the whole system.
This is exactly why I have spent years encouraging my readers to build up their own food storage. It is not about fear. It is about being the kind of family that is ready for whatever comes.
What this means for your family
I am not a farmer, an economist, or a trade expert, and I always encourage you to consult qualified professionals and trusted sources, such as the USDA or Penn State Extension, for technical details. But as someone who has spent years thinking about food storage and preparedness, here is what I take away from all of this. Our food system is more connected to global events than most of us ever stop to consider. A conflict overseas, a shipping delay, or a change in tariff policy can all affect the price and availability of the food we depend on.
That is exactly why I keep saying the same thing again and again on this blog. Build your food storage now, while you have the time and the ability to do it thoughtfully. Start with the basics your family actually eats. Rotate what you store so nothing goes to waste. Add a little each week rather than trying to do it all at once. Whether or not a shortage ever reaches your local store, having a well-stocked pantry gives you peace of mind and one less thing to worry about.
Here are fifteen items that make sense to prioritize, since they come from crops that are most dependent on nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers to grow well, or are downstream products made from those crops.
Wheat flour and whole wheat berries, since wheat is one of the most fertilizer-dependent staple crops in the world
Rice, particularly white rice, which stores well and relies heavily on fertilizer-intensive growing methods
Dried corn or cornmeal, since corn requires some of the highest fertilizer inputs of any major crop
Pasta, since it is made from wheat and has a long shelf life
Oats, another grain crop sensitive to fertilizer costs and availability
Dried beans, including pinto, black, and navy beans, since legumes are a stable protein source if grain prices rise
Lentils, which store for years and provide protein without depending on meat supply chains
Cooking oil, especially soybean or canola oil, since oilseed crops are also fertilizer intensive
Sugar, since sugar beets and sugar cane both rely on heavy fertilizer use
Canned vegetables, particularly corn, green beans, and tomatoes, since these crops are affected by both fertilizer costs and transportation
Canned or dried potatoes, since potatoes require significant fertilizer input per acre
Powdered milk, since dairy cattle feed relies on corn and soy, both fertilizer-dependent crops
Peanut butter, since peanuts are a fertilizer-sensitive crop and peanut butter stores for a long time
Baking staples like yeast and baking powder, since bread production will matter more if flour prices rise
Animal feed grains if you keep chickens or livestock, since your animals depend on the same fertilizer-affected grain supply you do
A helpful approach is to buy a little more of these staples each time you shop rather than trying to stock up all at once. That keeps your budget steady and lets you rotate your supply so nothing goes to waste.
Fertilizer shortages can feel like a distant problem, something happening on the other side of the world that has nothing to do with our own kitchens. But as we have seen, the food on our shelves is tied to farming decisions made months in advance, and those decisions depend on fertilizer that comes from places far beyond our control. None of us can change global shipping routes or trade policy. What we can do is quietly and steadily build up our own food storage so our families are ready no matter what happens with prices or availability down the road. Start small, choose foods your family already eats and enjoys, and add to your supply a little at a time. That is how real preparedness happens: not all at once out of fear, but steadily out of love for the people you care for. May God bless this world, Linda
Copyright Images: Fertilizer with Man At Store AdobeStock_308118847By JackF, Tractor Spraying Fertilizer Depositphotos_740397656_S
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Here Are The Prepper Supplies You Need to Survive a Long-Term Disaster.
Anyone preparing to survive the effects of a long-term disaster has to deal with a constant balancing act: What do I need, how much do I need, and do I really need it? Much of the dilemma is driven by cost and common sense.
Most people can’t afford to buy everything for every possible disaster, and even if they could, where would they store it? And is any or all of it portable in the event of an evacuation?
Is a Complete, Long-Term Disaster List Realistic?
The surprising answer is: Probably not. Disasters vary and so do the needs of anyone affected by it in addition to location, duration, and other factors that simply can’t be anticipated.
For those reasons, we’re going to filter decisions about any item that shows up on a prepper supply list with some basic questions. It could help with decision-making about various items and ensure that you assemble the supplies you genuinely would need rather than fill a basement full of random stuff.
As a result, we’ll list numerous possibilities, but then it will be up to you to prioritize based on your location, family size, level of concern, what you can afford, what you can store, and what you can potentially transport. Those priorities will not only guide decisions about what to buy but also the amounts to buy as well.
One category we won’t cover is emergency food. That is an extensive subject that goes well beyond equipment and supplies. Now let's get on with it…
Once you have your final list, do an audit or maybe a good cleanout to figure out what you already have on hand. We sometimes lose track of things from the past.
If a family member or neighbor has something on your list that looks unused or neglected like a rusty blacksmith’s anvil or a box of antique tools collecting dust in the garage, make them an offer.
Resale shops, dollar stores, and warehouseretailers are worth a good look. In an emergency, you don’t need the most expensive and well-known brands; you need something that works and will do the job.
Check eBay, Craigslist and other online sources for items both new and used.
Shop the Internet from Amazon to everyday retailers. Shop around and compare prices and look for bulk discounts.
Shop the sales. Assembling all of these items may take time, so take the time to find the best price.
Do it yourself. It's good practice for skills you will need in the future, and it’s always cheaper when you make it yourself.
Specialized retailers. There are some items that are unique and hard to find that offer surprising degrees of sustainability. Homesteading tools and equipment are one example, and a source like Lehmans—which is a traditional supplier to the Amish community—just might have that unique piece of equipment you can’t find anywhere else.
And don’t forget that antique stores often have unique, hard-to-find pioneer tools for sale that aren’t even manufactured anymore.
Disaster Defined
It may be worth taking a moment to understand and define disasters both short-term and long term. According to the International Federation of Red Cross:
A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the functioning of a community or society and causes human, material, and economic or environmental losses that exceed the community’s or society’s ability to cope using its own resources. Though often caused by nature, disasters can have human origins.”
There are other disasters that fall into extremes such as an asteroid strike or gamma-ray burst, but they are statistically improbable and no amount of preparedness would probably make a difference anyway. If it’s the end of the world as we know it, running out of toilet paper will be the least of our problems.
What’s important to remember is that while different disasters have different effects, there are some common challenges that emerge from any disaster. Those are the areas to really think about when preparing and stockpiling, and we’ll cover them one by one.
Short-Term versus Long-Term
This is where preparedness always gets complicated. FEMA's standard recommendation is that everyone should have a 72-hour kit. That’s not hard to do and you can either buy one pre-packed or put together your own.
The 72-hour or 3-day recommendation is based on facts. The average duration requiring survival tactics after a disaster averages about three days. After that period of time, relief efforts show up and life begins to return to normal. Sometimes.
Another recommendation that often shows up is a 2-week time-frame for supplies and survival equipment. There is no official recommendation from any agency or government for this two-week period, but some disasters like Hurricane Katrina and the Indonesian Tsunami affected local areas for months.
And that’s where things get really complicated because it starts to get into a long-term duration.
Unfortunately, there appears to be no clear definition of the duration of a long-term disaster. FEMA stops at 72-hours and afterward the experts proclaim that every disaster is unique with recommendations more in the category of long-term community plans rather than individual preparedness and planning.
As result, you may have to choose the duration you are planning for or worried about. Maybe the biggest thing to worry about is a duration that lasts for years. It’s estimated that a massive power grid failure would take 10 years to fully repair in the U.S. and other devastating disasters like an EMP burst or supervolcano eruption could have effects that go on for a generation or more.
Common Sense Considerations
The simple fact is that you really can’t prepare for everything. However, most disasters present some common challenges that are worth taking into account. Many disasters result in power outages, an increase in crime, shortages of everyday items, and medical emergencies. If you step back and look at the trends that accompany most disasters, it’s easier to narrow the range of supplies you should have on hand.
With that in mind, here are some considerations to guide any checklist for disaster preparedness:
What Could Happen?
It's worth thinking about the statistical probability of any disaster occurring that would affect you and your family, but this will vary depending on your location. Some areas are more subject to weather-related disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. Other areas are threatened by earthquakes, wildfires, and even tsunamis. Some parts of the world are enduring civil war and few parts of the world are unaffected by the Coronavirus pandemic.
In the general category of disasters, natural disasters are statistically more common and with rare exceptions like a global pandemic, they are usually localized. What that means is that resources are often still available, although not so much on a local level. The current pandemic is a good example. While there have been shortages of some items on a local level like toilet paper and hand sanitizer, you can still buy most anything from outside sources.
It’s the manmade disasters that seem to present the greatest challenge to long term survival. Civil wars go on for years and the looming threat of cyber attacks as a form of terrorism could cripple the power grid and the communications grid serving the Internet and cell phone technology. The cascade of events following those types of failures would extend to manufacturing and distribution and a failure of the supply of just about anything.
Take the time to think about what you can’t live without.
Who is Your Priority?
Historically, families pull together in times of emergency or disaster. What that means is you have more to think about than just yourself. It’s about your spouse, your kids, your grandparents and grandkids, and possibly brothers and sisters, nieces and nephews, and of course, your pets. As a result, you’re going to need more of some items just to have enough to go around. A tent may sleep six, but how many can realistically fit into one sleeping bag?
Stop and think about the quantity of items you should store and which individual items will suffice for the group.
Where Are You?
Are you living in an apartment in the city? A house in the suburbs? A homestead in a rural location? What you’ll need and can realistically use in different living environments will vary. A broad ax and log splitting maul might be a great idea if you live in a wooded area in the wilderness, but does anyone really need them when they’re living in a city in an apartment? It’s possible but not likely.
Your location is not only important when it comes to evaluating potential disasters, but it also affects your living style and the supplies you need to sustain yourself in that environment. Strive to be realistic. Think twice about anything you think you need. If you bog yourself down with imaginary “what-if” scenarios that rationalize a need for everything, then you’re not prepping—you’re just hoarding.
Ask yourself: Is it a usable and viable item for your short and long-term needs or just another random thing that showed up on a list that you might need “someday?”
How Long Will You Be On Your Own?
It’s impossible to evaluate duration, but the prepper’s mantra is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The worst-case scenario is a permanent change to the lifestyle we were accustomed to. If that’s your fear, you might consider a cabin in the woods or a homestead in the country. In those environments, you can live off the land to some degree with a high degree of self-reliance.
Most people don’t have the wherewithal or the inclination to make such a radical change in the course of preparing for disaster. But there’s still a significant survival concept to keep in mind when it comes to long-term disaster planning: sustainability.
Have you assembled equipment and supplies that are sustainable for the long term? A chain saw may make short work of cutting up wood… until you run out of gas, or oil, or the chain breaks. That might make you wonder why you didn’t buy that lumberman’s crosscut saw.
Stop and ask yourself if an item empowers your self-reliance in a sustainable way or is limited by the potential lack of another resource?
Prioritize!
The best way to establish priorities is to simply ask yourself what you can’t live without. If you or a family member is diabetic, two things come to mind: insulin and syringes. That’s an extreme example, but a fact of life for many. Before you bury yourself in long lists and fussy decision-making about stuff, aim straight for the priorities. Those should top your list, and from there you can expand your thinking.
Supplies to Consider
All supplies for survival and self-reliance fall into categories that satisfy fundamental needs. Thinking about needs makes it a lot easier to balance options from a supply standpoint.
And there are many options offering varying levels of solutions, so you need to pick what’s best for you, your group, your location, and your budget. A windmill for emergency electric power doesn’t make a lot of sense for someone living in a second-story apartment, but if the apartment has a southern exposure, solar panels could be a perfect solution.
With that in mind, here are the needs and possible supplies that could solve many of the challenges of a long-term disaster.
Electricity
Following most major disasters around the world are reports of power outages that last from hours to weeks and even months. Life without electricity becomes rapidly challenging and potentially dangerous.
You don’t need all of them, but it’s worth thinking about how you can produce electric power on your own if the power grid is down.
Communication
There are two priorities for communication after a disaster: Communication with immediate family and friends to know how they’re doing, and communication with the rest of the world to understand what’s going on.
It’s possible the Internet or cellphone service may be disrupted or severely compromised, so think about how you could communicate without those services. There’s also the possibility that TV won’t function depending on how the service is provided. It might be time to have a backup TV antenna that will at least allow you to receive locally broadcast TV signals. And don’t forget: old landline phones always seem to work even when the power was out.
If you’re depending on a radio for communication with family and friends, they’ll need to have their own equipment as well. And don’t forget, most cars come with a radio conveniently installed.
Heat
Heat will always be an issue in any area with cold winters. The challenge comes from the fact that most furnaces require some level of electricity to operate, even furnaces connected to natural gas. Solutions are limited based on the availability of any electric power and, in the case of woodstoves, firewood.
Here are some things to consider, although any woodstove would require installation.
Most people have a sufficient supply of pots, pans, and other utensils for cooking and eating. However, most of that cooking equipment assumes a source of heat, and while it’s possible that a gas stove may still work when the power is out, there’s no guarantee. It’s time to think like a camper in your own backyard or apartment patio. How will you cook food?
Sustainability continues to be a lingering question, so don’t assume a propane stove and a couple of extra cylinders will get you through. Have a backup plan. Even if you’re ultimately left with burning scrap wood in a hobo stove, you have a viable option for cooking if the power stays out and you’re out of gas.
Clothing
Most of us already have what we need in terms of clothing, but think about what’s missing. It’s possible we’ll be spending more time outdoors than usual even in inclement weather. Do we have the clothes we need to function when it’s below zero? Does everyone have rain gear for a day and night in the rain?
Think in terms of durability too. If you’re due for a new pair of boots, buy the best. It may be a while before you get to that next, new pair. Also, think about clothes that take a beating. Socks come to mind, so don’t skimp on the socks. And then there’s that sustainability issue. Make sure you have the necessary tools and supplies to repair clothing.
Here are some possibilities for frequently needed clothing, and don’t forget the needs of your entire family or group:
This may seem like an unnecessary consideration and most homes are sufficiently supplied for bedding and sleeping arrangements, but disasters often create a new challenge when it comes to sleeping arrangements. Past precedent indicates that many family members relocate to another family member’s home while recovering from a long term disaster.
Are you equipped to accommodate unexpected guests for the long term with regards to bedding and sleeping arrangements?
Living in the dark during a power outage adds to the stress and complications of recovering from any disaster. There are many options, and you might want to consider purchasing them as backups or alternatives depending on need. One thing to maybe skip are conventional batteries for flashlights. They just don’t last long. Think sustainability.
We may not be covering food in this article, but water is more critical. We can go quite some time without food, but none of us will last 3 days without water. The challenge after any disaster is finding water that’s safe to drink. When the power is out, the well pumps don’t work and even gravity-fed water from a water tower will eventually run out.
The critical equipment and supplies related to water have to do with collection, filtration, purification, and storage. You could always boil water (for at least 3 minutes), but given how vital water is to survival, you should seriously invest in supplies related to water.
This is another subjective area driven by your location and your perception of threat levels. A standard recommendation is a rifle and handgun, although there’s more to self-defense than firearms.
Beyond that, it’s really a question of your experience with rifles and handguns and the potential risk at your location. Ammunition is an obvious consideration and how much you store is also up to you, although it will undoubtedly become a very rare and valuable commodity in the midst of a catastrophic disaster.
Medical Treatment and First Aid
Do yourself a favor and buy an expedition-level first aid kit. You can try assembling all of the first aid equipment and supplies yourself, but it will probably end up costing you as much if not more, and you just might miss something. After a disaster injuries can get serious, so you should have a serious first aid kit on hand to treat a range of injuries.
Stock up on OTC medicines as well. Remember the kid/infant dosage options. Add a good supply of vitamins and minerals or at the very least, a multivitamin.
As far as prescription medicines go, you could always ask your doctor for a 90-day supply. Your insurance may not cover a 90-day option, so you may have to pay for the extra doses.
You could also discuss your concerns with your doctor and they might write you a prescription for purchasing larger amounts as long as they are not in an opioid or other narcotic/dangerous category. Some people have started ordering prescriptions from Canada using their doctor’s prescription and are sometimes able to order quantities up to 180 doses.
If there’s one area where you should make a significant investment, it’s tools. The reason tools are so critical goes beyond do-it-yourself projects you might improvise after a disaster. They're also important because of the significant level of repairs you may have to do if your home has been damaged.
The good news is that most tools are relatively cheap, although some obscure tools like a drawshave or adze could be a bit pricey simply because there is not a high demand for what are considered “pioneer” tools. But if you think about it, pioneer tools are exactly what you’ll need if there’s a power outage or shortage of basic commodities like gasoline or oil. Curiously, antique stores often have many pioneer tools for sale at very low prices.
Another possibility is battery-powered tools using a rechargeable battery that you recharge either with solar panels or some other self-generated power. There are many videos on the Internet of people building entire cabins in remote areas using nothing but solar recharged battery-powered tools.
Just as important as tools are various types of hardware including nails, screws, nuts, bolts and washers, hinges, hasps, baling wire, and any other hardware you might need to repair, rebuild, or construct anything. But think ahead.
If you had to build or repair something without power or a convenient hardware store, what would you need?
This covers a wide range of considerations from toilet paper to cleaning supplies. It’s a category that has shown direct evidence of the effect that shortages can have as a result of a disaster like a global pandemic.
Do you have everything you need to keep everything clean?
It’s one thing to assemble and store a nice collection of disaster supplies, but it’s another thing if you have to pack and evacuate. It’s the primary design of the 72-hour kits or grab-and-go bags as they’re sometimes called. How successfully you evacuate has a lot to do with what you can take with you.
One recommendation that shows up often is to evacuate on foot to avoid the traffic jams of a massive evacuation. That might work for one or two adults, but a family with children or elderly parents or someone with a physical handicap may have to either bug in or make the best of it in a vehicle.
Traveling on foot also limits how much you can reasonably bring with you. Bugging out also requires some thought for where and how you’ll live on the road. Think camping and all that comes with it.
Regardless of how you evacuate, it helps to take time to stop and think about what you would take from an extensive collection of supplies. One way to do this is to compartmentalize items so you can quickly grab pre-assembled kits. It’s the first aid kit concept scaled up and out to other items to make them easier to find and pack and easier to use when needed.
There’s a possibility that commerce will be radically altered by a long-term disaster. Conventional sales and the use of credit cards and even cash may be compromised. In a barter economy, there are certain barter items that hold more value than others. The standard assumption is bullets and gold coins but in some instances, tampons and children’s Tylenol may have more value.
That may be the only rational argument for hoarding. If you see something that you believe will have increased value that doesn’t cost a lot, buy a lot of it. Even if you don’t use it “someday” you may find it’s quite valuable to someone else.
Books
Books fall clearly in the category of supplies. They’re portable knowledge banks telling you how to best use all of the stuff you’ve assembled. That’s especially true if the Internet is down or you find yourself on the road for an evacuation.
The following books do a good job of identifying supplies you need and introducing skills you should learn.
Definitely. There are so many fluid scenarios that surround any disaster that it’s almost impossible to anticipate every possibility. The things that are often missed are either items that are suddenly needed in a bug-out situation or in a constantly evolving situation that presents an unexpected set of new challenges. If you think of something that should be on this list, please share it in the comments section below.
Focus on Sustainability
The longer you have to endure a disaster, the sooner you’ll run out of the things you need. Look at every item and ask yourself if you need to stock more; determine a suitable replacement, or start acquiring obscure skills like making soap out of wood ashes.
Better Yet… Plan Ahead
The only way to ensure you have what you’ll need to survive a long-term disaster is to calmly evaluate what could potentially happen in your location, do some research to evaluate the challenges that would emerge, and methodically obtain, organize, and store what you think you and your family might need to maintain survival in the short-term, and especially to sustain it for the long-term.
I’m one of those people that see fear as a helpful ally rather than an enemy or “show stopper” and I learned to use it for guidance in the last two decades since I’ve thrown myself into the world of emergency preparedness. Fear has a way of slipping into a household uninvited and making itself […]
