Back in the spring, a lot of us thought the trouble with Iran would be over in a few weeks. Now gas averages around $4.27 a gallon, and diesel costs more than $6 in many places. Then in mid-October, drivers in Omaha and Lincoln went to fill up and found the pumps empty.
The Strait of Hormuz has been mostly closed for months, so that oil never reaches the market. And Gulf Coast refineries moved their maintenance to this fall, right when harvest pushes diesel demand to its peak. That’s why empty pumps may not stay a Nebraska-only problem for long.
In August, I wrote a piece called Avoid These States in the Next Fuel Crisis, and back then much of it still read like a warning. But in just two months, those warnings turned into empty pumps and record prices. So I went back through the latest numbers to show you how bad things got since then. And I also looked at how much harder it could hit this winter, as we head into 2027.
In some states, you’ll just pay more every time you fill up. But in others, you could be driving from town to town on an almost empty tank. And back home, your heating oil could run low just as the cold sets in.
California: Highest Gas Prices and Shrinking Refinery Capacity
If you filled up in Los Angeles this week, you paid about $6.08 a gallon for regular, and diesel ran close to $8.50. Back in August, regular in California averaged $5.64 a gallon, and diesel averaged $7.13. So in just two months, gas went up more than 40 cents, and diesel jumped well over a dollar.
And the state has fewer refineries to fall back on, after Phillips 66 shut its Los Angeles plant in October 2025 and Valero closed Benicia in 2026. That leaves six refineries to make the special CARB blend the state requires. So more of California’s fuel now arrives by tanker, and one late ship can thin out supply along the whole coast. If one of those six refineries has a fire or an unplanned outage, you could sit in a two-hour gas line in Sacramento with a quarter tank and a doctor’s appointment across town.
So before you end up in that line, find out which are the best types of fuel to keep at home and how to store them properly
Nebraska: Empty Gas Pumps in Omaha and Lincoln
Prices in Omaha and Lincoln stayed close to the national average, and that’s why the empty pumps caught people off guard. Then in mid-October, stations across both metros ran out of fuel. Gov. Jim Pillen signed an executive order on October 19 to get more trucks moving. It waives hours-of-service limits for fuel haulers and lets them run up to 10% over weight limits through November 18.
Even so, haulers told local news they’re driving west to find fuel and waiting in long lines at terminals. Harvest pushed diesel demand to its peak, and every load of diesel on a truck leaves less room for gasoline. So out past the metros, your pickup competes with combines and grain trucks for the same deliveries.
That’s why I started making my own diesel from old cooking oil. Once you learn the backyard biodiesel method, your truck stops depending on whether the hauler shows up this week. Just make sure you work outside, because the lye and methanol in the mix can burn your skin and catch fire easily. So set up well away from the house, where kids and pets can’t wander over while you’re working.
And if you’d like to watch it done before you try it yourself, the video below takes you through the whole process step by step:
Hawaii: One Refinery and an Ocean Between You and Resupply
Out in the middle of the Pacific, drivers pay around $5.65 a gallon, second only to California. And the whole state runs on one refinery, Par Hawaii in Kapolei, fed with crude through a single mooring buoy off Barbers Point. From there, the neighbor islands depend on barges for their share.
That chain has very little backup. If the buoy gets damaged or a tanker runs late, an entire island chain feels it, and there’s no next state to drive to for a fill-up. Hawaii also gets about 93% of its jet fuel from South Korea, which pulls roughly 70% of its crude through Hormuz. And since the islands burn oil to make electricity, a fuel squeeze shows up on your power bill too. On Maui or the Big Island, a late barge can leave your local station dry while Honolulu still has fuel.
Luckily, I found a way to keep my lights on even when the power plant runs short of oil. And on a sunny day, even during winter, this innovative solar setup stores enough power to run my lights and radio well into the night. So when the grid goes dark, I can still see around the house and hear the news until the next tanker comes in.
And if the grid goes down, the pumps that push water to your tap can stop too. So you’ll want to know how to turn a flower pot into a water purifier before the faucet runs dry.
Nevada: A Desert State Running on California’s Fuel
Gas in Las Vegas and Reno averaged about $5.34 this week, the fourth-highest in the country. Both cities still get their fuel by pipeline from California refineries. So every problem over there, including the Benicia closure, shows up at Nevada pumps too.
Still, the rural counties carry the bigger risk, because tanker trucks cover long stretches of empty highway to reach small-town stations along routes like US 50. So if the station in Austin or Eureka runs dry, the next open pump could be more than an hour away. And on a cold November night in the high desert, running out of gas between towns with no cell signal can turn dangerous fast.
In a blackout, your flashlight and weather radio quickly become the most precious things in your stockpile. But every hour they run, you burn through batteries you can’t restock until the grid comes back. And chances are you don’t know exactly how many good ones you have left, or how long they’ll hold.
So it pays to learn how to bring dead batteries back to life before the lights go out. You can start with the battery revival project in No Grid Survival Projects (p. 64 and 65), and keep it ready for the next outage. Then again, if you want someone to walk you through every step, the EZ Battery revival class shows you how to restore everything from small AA cells to car batteries. Enroll here before November 15th, and you’ll lock in the discount while it’s still available.
Alaska: Rural Villages Supplied by Barge Before Freeze-Up
Up in Anchorage, regular runs around $4.89 a gallon, which sounds mild next to California. But city prices hide what happens off Alaska’s road system. Many rural villages get their entire winter supply of gasoline and heating fuel by barge. And once the rivers and coastline freeze, that delivery window closes until spring.
So whatever price a village paid this summer, at the height of the crisis, stays locked in all winter. If a barge came up short, there’s no highway to send a truck down. If you live in a river village, you could spend February rationing stove oil at 30 below, with the next delivery months away.
That’s why you shouldn’t burn precious fuel just to see at night. Instead, you can make your own homemade oil lamp from things already in the house, and it stays lit with the biodiesel you make from cooking oil that I mentioned in the chapter above.
You can also learn how to recycle wax into long-burning candles, so every drop in the tank goes toward heat.
North Dakota: Record Diesel Prices in Farm Country
On September 29, diesel averaged about $6.17 a gallon across North Dakota, and the state declared an emergency over diesel supply. So Gov. Kelly Armstrong let farmers run cheaper red-dyed diesel on highways through November 30. That saves them 19 cents a gallon in state tax, and it barely dents the bill. NDSU estimates North Dakota farms will spend roughly $100 million more on diesel this year.
Then comes winter, and the state has been here before. Back in February 2025, a cold snap left North Dakota extremely low on propane and petroleum products. This year, fuel goes into the cold season already tight and expensive. For a farmhouse 40 miles from town, a delivery truck stuck behind a blizzard can leave the furnace running on the last few inches in the tank.
And many oil and propane furnaces need electricity to run the blower, so a downed power line can shut off your heat with a full tank. But I have a trick for that. I put together Ron’s famous modular generator that keeps the furnace fan going, and I can add pieces to it as my needs grow.
Maine and New England: Heating Oil at Record Highs
Of all the places on this list, New England could be the most dangerous, since so many homes there heat with oil. About 3.4 million Northeast households heat with oil, roughly 82% of all oil-heated homes in the country. Heating oil in New England averaged about $6.11 a gallon on October 19. That’s up 77% from a year ago.
And the storage tanks are running low. In mid-October, distillate stocks in New England sat about 45% below their five-year average. Distillate covers both diesel and heating oil, so truckers and homeowners pull from the same shrinking supply. The Department of Energy agreed to loan up to 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, though that only adds about 13% to regional supply.
So filling a standard 275-gallon tank now runs more than $1,600, and the coldest months haven’t even started. Then picture a January cold snap in Bangor, with the oil dealer a week behind on deliveries. An elderly couple could be closing off rooms and sleeping in their coats while the pipes freeze in the walls.
And if oil prices keep climbing, you can lean on 10 old ways to heat your home that need neither fuel nor electricity.
Other States Already Under Emergency Orders
And the trouble reaches well past the seven states above. South Dakota’s governor signed an order on September 28 letting farmers haul crops and livestock at 10% over weight limits. That same order has the state watching fuel supplies in case dyed diesel runs short. Meanwhile, diesel sits around $6.17 in Iowa and $6.23 in Minnesota, so farm families there pay nearly as much as North Dakota does.
Out east, Maryland got hit just as hard. Diesel there set a record of about $6.47 on October 5, up 76% in a year. Four days later, Gov. Wes Moore let farm and forestry vehicles run on dyed diesel. So if you live along the East Coast, you’re drawing from the same thin supply as New England, and a delivery truck running late could hit you just as hard.
How to Prepare for a Fuel Shortage in 2027
Living in one of these states, you can’t fix a refinery fire or speed up a late barge. But you can make sure the fuel you already have still burns clean when the deliveries slow down.
So before the first cold snap, you can work through these steps one at a time:
- Learn the rules of fuel storage first. Before you fill a single can, read up on the 7 rules of storing fuel, because one mistake can ruin your whole supply.
- Rotate your gas cans. Keep them in a detached shed, and pour the oldest one into your truck every few months so your stock keeps turning over.
- Keep diesel tanks full. Diesel lasts longer, but condensation forms in a half-empty tank, and that water feeds a microbial growth people call diesel bug. That slime clogs filters right when you need the tractor or generator to start.
- Treat stored diesel with a biocide. It kills the growth before it spreads, so your fuel stays clean through the winter.
- Top off your oil or propane tank now. Dealers still deliver on schedule today, and that could change fast once the cold sets in.
- Set up a backup heat source. A wood stove or an indoor-rated kerosene heater can keep one room livable if the truck doesn’t show.
What to Expect From the Fuel Crisis This Winter
Still, the people who track oil for a living don’t see relief coming soon. The International Energy Agency warns diesel could stay tight well into next year, because refineries can’t replace what the world lost.
And home heat looks just as rough. The Energy Information Administration expects heating oil to cost about 34% more this winter, with East Coast stocks 20% to 30% below average. Even that grim forecast counts on a mild Northeast.
Right now, NOAA does lean toward a warmer-than-average winter across the northern U.S., thanks to a very strong El Niño. But that only shifts the odds, and one week of Arctic air in January can empty a half-full tank before the oil dealer even calls you back.
Meanwhile, the same El Niño tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South, from the Gulf Coast to the lower mid-Atlantic. So if ice and flooding slow the fuel trucks heading north, New England could run short in the coldest weeks of the year.
So, if the fuel stops coming and the lights go out in January, you’ll want a plan you can follow step by step. The Blackout Survival Manual walks you through a winter blackout, an EMP, and a long fuel crisis from the first hour on. You won’t have to guess what to do while the house gets colder by the minute.
This way you will learn:
- What to do in the first hour after the power goes out, before the house loses its heat
- How to keep one room warm enough to sleep in when the furnace sits dead
- How to stop your pipes from freezing and bursting while the grid stays down
- How to stretch the fuel you have when deliveries stop for weeks
- Which electronics an EMP could fry, and how you can protect them ahead of time
So before the first cold snap tests your stockpile, grab your copy of the Blackout Survival Manual and keep it somewhere you can reach in the dark.
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The post Worst States to Be in During the Fuel Crisis This Winter appeared first on Ask a Prepper.
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