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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Eight Common TEOTWAWKI Misconceptions

*Edited by Christopher Young

Misconception Number One: You are going to bug
out by car, truck or recreational vehicle (RV).

Wrong, it takes only one careless driver to shut
down the road. On a normal day an overturned
truck closes the road for half a day. With no
wrecker service, the road will be closed forever.
With everyone attempting  to flee for the hills
the roads will be gridlock. There are no secret
roads, if you know about them so do others.

You have plans of leaving "before".

Wrong. You have no way to know ahead of time
when the crisis happens. What if you are wrong?
How many "Chicken Little" events will your employer
tolerate? Generally speaking, there are a cascade
of small, inconspicuous events leading to the need
to bug out or get home. Once you are sure, you can
count on walking or maybe biking, because the
masses will be in one huge traffic jam.

Misconception Number Two: You are fit enough to
walk, carrying the stuff you think you need.

Wrong. Your bug out refuge is miles away, or you
are miles from home. You will be in for a rude
awakening. Most Americans are so badly out of
shape that walking any distance is impossible.
Get off the couch and go for a walk, and do so
often. Maybe even carry your get home bag?
And what will you say to the hundreds of hungry
people who are standing next to their gridlocked
cars? They will see that you have a bug out bag,
and they will want you to share all that food
and water that you are "hoarding".

Misconception Number Three:  Your can carry your
Bug Out Bag.

Wrong. Once you start walking with a heavy pack
you will begin discarding things, the two pound
stove, the ten pound tent, the five pound coffee
maker, the camp pad, the cute little
folding shovel, two pounds, three pound Rambo knife,large rope, extra clothes and so on.  How do we
know? Because that is what you see along the
uphill section of the Appalachian Trail.  It
looks like a yard  sale. What is not seen are
matches, small knifes, water filters, light
weight tarps, and freeze dried foods, and other
things that are either essential or are both
light weight and have multiple uses.

Consider using a shopping cart, if any are left,
or pulling a child's wagon. Are you in shape to
do that? How do you know? Put on that pack and
give it a test.

Misconception Number Four:  Roving criminal hordes
will come from the city to your Bug Out Location

Wrong. Criminals, are lazy.  And many are on drugs.
Yes, a few will have a specific refuge in mind,
the uncle with the farm, but most will not leave
their familiar comfortable environment.

A few criminals do stay in shape. Some walk every
where, because the don't have cars. Others are
"Power pile" weight lifters, especially ones who
have recently got out of prison. But, do they
travel far from home? I doubt it.

Even if they have a vehicle, it is likely to be
low on fuel, particularly these days.  They will
burn up what little fuel they have driving around
their usual haunts, to the liquor and drug stores,
then to the convenience or grocery store like they
did before the event until their tank is empty.

Many travel by city bus, and the city bus service
will probably be shut down.

There will be rare exceptions. Some will turn
into roving gangs, similar to the African war lords
with jeeps and AK-47s.

When booze, junk food, and the aid from gov't
response is exhausted they will repeatedly call
their social worker, and DEMAND more aid. They
may take to protests in the streets, demanding
welfare aid.

Burning and looting will increase until they get
the welfare aid "owed" to them. Or until there
is nothing left to burn or steal.  When food and
clean bedding all run out they are not likely to
walk out of town any more then than before. They
are weaker, hungry, going through DT and nic fits,
and as out of shape as most of us. Some travel by
walking (those too poor to have a car). Most travel
by bus, cab, and vehicle.  They have rarely walked
any distance at all in their adult lives and are
unlikely to start now.

The biggest reason, they are brainwashed, to wait
for rescue and will stay in town. They are
conditioned that it is somebody else's respons-
ibility to take care of them. You are not going to
see welfare bums at your BOL. If they move at all,
they will head for another urban area rumored to
be better, particularly, if they are being trucked
there by the National Guard or government.

(Another reader comments: Think about what is taking
place in many Third World countries like Somalia. You
see local warlords carving out a territory and trying
to expand it constantly. You see pirate groups
organizing to prey on shipping etc. I think that
relatively early in time roving criminals and criminal
gangs will be a problem, I would say within non more
than a month after the government is sufficiently
disorganized. Another fact that supports this is the
observation that the more unemployment rises the more
the crime against property rises.  There is already a
core of criminals who are organized and will naturally
become roving predatory gangs, street gangs, outlaw
bikers to name just two.

Misconception Number Five: You can live off the land.

Wrong. There are thousands of people who will
suddenly decide to blow the dust off Grandpa
Elmer's old rifle, and take to the woods. Any
animals will be quickly consumed, from deer down
to the neighbor's dog and cat, just after they
eat the pet food. If you do manage to hunt a deer,
the other hungry hunters may try to take it from
you. Remember, they are armed with rifles.  Ditto
for fire wood. The USA is overpopulated and thus
soon stripped of everything nearby.

The heirloom seeds you have will be priceless
and stored food more so. You would be wise to have
some gardening tools, and hand tools at home. So
you can grow food, and repair or rebuild your home.

When the people in the woods run out of food, many
will turn into highwaymen, looters, and sneak thieves
who prey on other woods dwellers. The marijuana
farmers, and border criminals will have plenty of
practice sneaking around, and plenty of skills of
preying on the honest.

Misconception Number Six:  You can defend
your castle.

Wrong. You have to sleep some time. City people
will become land pirates. If you have food then
you are a potential victim. You need to stay out
of sight, and keep your supplies secret. The
fight you avoid, is the fight you win.

It may be possible to defend your castle, if
you have enough people to take shifts of watch and
Misconception Number Seven: Your assault weapon
and 1,000 rounds of ammo are your most important

Wrong. other things will prove to be more
important, such as a water well, water filter,
or home storage of food and water.

Misconception Number Eight: The government is
here to help.

Wrong. The authorities will have their own agenda
which will not be the same as yours. Even if the
government "just wants to help", that help could
destroy your plan. You want to stay home. The
squad of guys with M-16 rifles who just arrived
have orders to search all houses and confiscate
guns, and then load everyone onto trucks to go to
refugee camps. The government is not your friend.
Sadly, they have organization, the force of law
(or at least they think they are acting legally)
and they usually have a lot of guns.

For some people, Crisis changes how we handle
matters. There is a rapid learning phase. Plan
on doing things you have never done and plan on
other people having a totally different agenda
than yours.

First example, you plan to grow crops. But as
soon as there are tender greens, others agenda
is to eat everything green and tender.

Second example, you plan to stay home, stay out
of sight with your stored food and water. Your
neighbors agenda is to go from house to house,
and steal anything of value.

Third example. You plan to stay home, but the
government armed thugs agenda is to load every
one on trucks and take every one to refugee
camps. The government armed thugs agenda is to
confiscate anything of value and redistribute
it to those who did not prepare.

1 comment:

  1. Outstanding post.

    I suspect civilized behavior will erode once parents begin to see their kids starve. They will be forced to forage (formally known as looting) and from that perspective justification to take from others is not much of a leap even for the most pious. The scent of a cooking fire, an adequately fed appearance and/or even activity out of tune with the surrounding desperation could betray your foresightedness and make you a target.

    Your insights are excellent. Thanks again for posting.